After rising steadily since 2008, Statistics Canada’s new housing price index has flattened out in September, following on a 0.1 per cent increase in August, but a new report says that's no cause for concern as Canadian real estate development will remain strong.
New housing prices fell in Edmonton, Windsor, Ottawa and Montreal, but those decreases were offset by a 0.5 per cent jump in Calgary, which is seeing higher labour and materials prices as it recovers from floods this summer.
The flat housing prices are no cause for concern, according to the Emerging Trends in Real Estate report from Price Water house Coopers and the Urban Land Institute.
Canada’s relative economic health, especially compared to our neighbours to the south, has kept residential real estate strong, says the report, released Wednesday.
Trend to urbanization
Tighter mortgage rules and increasingly cautious banks have helped flatten condo prices, especially in North America’s hottest condo market — Toronto, the report said. But, cranes are expected to remain visible along major city skylines as projects already in the pipeline are fully built and but the trend toward urbanization keeps demand buoyant.
The trend among young Canadians to live, play and work all in the same neighbourhood is driving a boom in both condos and urban office development, says the report.
The outlook for development of all types of property – from residential to commercial – is good in Canada, according to PwC partner Lori-Ann Beausoleil.
Transit is of increasing importance to all forms of real estate development, she said.
Look for transit
“With challenging infrastructure in all major Canadian centres coupled with the urbanization trend, there will be a continued demand for retail, office and residential space in our urban centres where there is easy access to mass transit,” she said.
Redevelopment of urban areas and creation of mixed use real estate are key trends for the coming year, she said, especially in centres such as Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Montreal.
But the report says real estate that is far from transit, or a long way from residential areas may become underused and is less likely to be redeveloped because of a significant shift in where people want to live.
Increased automobile commute times and snarled traffic are turning people off suburban living and many Canadians are choosing condo living over the house with a yard which comes with a frustrating commute.
These include the 20-somethings, who are establishing lifelong habits of urban living, and baby boomers, who want to give up snow-shovelling and be closer to the symphony, the report said.
Changes to office market
Older commercial or suburban properties that are not close to transit may wait in limbo for redevelopment.
The office development business is changing with more demand for open layouts, shrinking space use per capita, technology impacts and demands for energy efficiency, Beausoleil advises.
She said the Canadian real estate sector is likely to remain strong for the coming year, and the U.S. market is likely to recover.
“The forecasts show that Canadian real estate players are able to both invest and attract investors. With the U.S. economy on the upswing, we are likely to see even more activity between the two countries, Beausoleil said.
“Over the last several years, Canada has been the interesting real estate story while the U.S. markets were in distress, but now, we expect that the continuing U.S. recovery will be the real story. Still, Canada’s strong market and the spending power of our consumers will continue to position us well in the international community as we head into 2014.”
How To Beat Banks At Renewal Time
The challenges of the traditionally slow winter season is now being compounded by banks contacting past clients 120 days ahead of renewal – and just out of reach of the brokers’ 90 day rate hold.
“I’m relatively new so I still don’t get those return clients with renewals (and) this time of year in Ottawa it’s slow because people don’t want to move in in December and January,” Nick Bachusky told MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “The banks are getting to the clients first – 120 days out, the managers get an automatic message saying whose renewals are up and then the specialists contact the clients with the best rates. It’s tough for brokers to compete because we can only offer at 90 days out.”
The banks tend to have the rate advantage and it can be difficult to sway a previous bank client to move the mortgage to the brokerage side.
“The banks go on floors: they don’t make revenue on it, they make more on volume (and) if it’s a war on rates, the banks will usually win it,” Bachusky said. “They can go to upper management and get rate matches and clients are more willing to stick with the bank because no new paperwork has to be done and no new rules need to be discussed.”
However, one way to get a leg-up on the competition is to focus on other areas of wealth management and providing customers a more holistic financial services approach.
“For renewals, what we’re finding, is that with our client base we offer more than just mortgage services,” Patrick Briscoe of Mortgage Alliance told MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “We have a little bit more client dedication in the fact that they come to us first to get an opinion on what they should do.”
Briscoe believes it can be difficult to compete on rate but it’s this other services that help keep the client, in many cases.
“We have seen competition from the banks for sure as they compete for rates, but at the same time by offering other services we have been able to maintain the client,” Briscoe said. “We do investment services, life insurance and income tax preparation.”
Perhaps this approach is the best way to stay competitive during this important time of the year.
“It’s nice to have a niche in what we’re doing but we think it’s necessary for brokers to have the same sort of model if they want to remain competitive,” Briscoe said.
“I’m relatively new so I still don’t get those return clients with renewals (and) this time of year in Ottawa it’s slow because people don’t want to move in in December and January,” Nick Bachusky told MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “The banks are getting to the clients first – 120 days out, the managers get an automatic message saying whose renewals are up and then the specialists contact the clients with the best rates. It’s tough for brokers to compete because we can only offer at 90 days out.”
The banks tend to have the rate advantage and it can be difficult to sway a previous bank client to move the mortgage to the brokerage side.
“The banks go on floors: they don’t make revenue on it, they make more on volume (and) if it’s a war on rates, the banks will usually win it,” Bachusky said. “They can go to upper management and get rate matches and clients are more willing to stick with the bank because no new paperwork has to be done and no new rules need to be discussed.”
However, one way to get a leg-up on the competition is to focus on other areas of wealth management and providing customers a more holistic financial services approach.
“For renewals, what we’re finding, is that with our client base we offer more than just mortgage services,” Patrick Briscoe of Mortgage Alliance told MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “We have a little bit more client dedication in the fact that they come to us first to get an opinion on what they should do.”
Briscoe believes it can be difficult to compete on rate but it’s this other services that help keep the client, in many cases.
“We have seen competition from the banks for sure as they compete for rates, but at the same time by offering other services we have been able to maintain the client,” Briscoe said. “We do investment services, life insurance and income tax preparation.”
Perhaps this approach is the best way to stay competitive during this important time of the year.
“It’s nice to have a niche in what we’re doing but we think it’s necessary for brokers to have the same sort of model if they want to remain competitive,” Briscoe said.
Flaherty: House Prices A Worry, But No Mortgage Crackdown For Now
OTTAWA - Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is taking on the responsibility of averting a housing bubble in Canada that could destabilize the economy, adding he will speak to those in the business to try and keep a lid on rising home prices.
With the Bank of Canada essentially taking itself out of the game by signalling interest rates won’t be raised for some time, Flaherty said Monday after meeting with about a dozen economists that it falls on his department to ensure the market is stabilized.
"It does fall to the Department of Finance to do anything if we’re going to do anything because there’s basically no room for the Bank of Canada to move," he said.
"Some of the economists suggested I have some conversations with people in the building industry because what we’re seeing in certain parts of the country (is) a re-acceleration of housing prices. I do speak regularly to people in the business and I’m going to do more of it now."
Flaherty said he has no intention of acting at the moment, but said he was keeping an eye on the market to see if the current uptick in sales and prices is temporary or the beginning of another hot run.
Most economists see the market slowing after the recent resurgence, including the Bank of Canada. But the central bank also cited the “renewed momentum” as one of three domestic risks to the economy in its October monetary policy report.
"This (the resurgence) would provide a temporary boost to economic activity, but could exacerbate existing imbalances and therefore increase the probability of a correction later on," the bank said. "Such a correction could have sizable spillover effects to other parts of the economy and to inflation."
The minister has been active in the housing market throughout his tenure, at first easing rules but more recently clamping down as Canadians took on ever-increasing debt levels to buy real estate.
The latest measure, which came in July 2012, was followed by a slump in sales and a slowdown in price gains. But the market began picking up again during the summer, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver, with the average home price hitting a new record high of almost $386,000.
Home prices are not Flaherty’s only worry.
The minister told reporters he remains focused on trying to eliminate as much as possible the price gap between the United States and Canada that one recent report pegged at about 10 per cent.
Flaherty said he has been meeting with CEOs of the country’s major retailers to ask for explanations as to why prices for the same items remain elevated in Canada, adding that he is not altogether persuaded by the answers he has been given.
"There are some companies that look at Canada as a relatively small market that is relative well off, (with a) large middle class, and, ‘Let them pay a little more, and they’ll pay it.’," he said of merchant attitudes.
However, Flaherty said he will wait until the results of a study being conducted by the market research firm Nielsen before deciding if anything needs to be done.
"It becomes an interesting question of what the government can do about that … there are always persuasive techniques that can be used to nudge people in the right direction," he said.
The minister has deployed the approach before.
Earlier this year he personally phoned the Bank of Montreal to “persuade” it to raise its five-year fixed mortgage rate after BMO cut it to 2.99 per cent. Flaherty said he was concerned about a race to the bottom on rates that would trigger unsustainable borrowing.
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