Canada Scraps 'Millionaire Visa,' Sends B.C. Property Market Reeling

Real estate agents in Vancouver say property prices could take a hit, after Canada scrapped a program which allowed wealthy immigrants to fast-track the visa process.

The Immigrant Investor Program, launched in 1986, offered visas to business people with a net worth of at least $1.6 million who were willing to lend $800,000 to the Canadian government — for investment across Canada — for a term of five years.

By 2012, the scheme had to be temporarily frozen due to a huge backlog of applications from wealthy mainland Chinese hoping to come to B.C. Now, the government has announced it will end the program for good and scrap all 59,000 applications backlogged worldwide.

The decision came less than a week after the South China Morning Post published a series of exclusive investigative reports into the controversial scheme.

Property prices could take a hit

In West Vancouver, real estate agent Clarence Debelle is still receiving offers from mainland China for luxury property, but she’s concerned the end of the investor program will have an impact on the local economy and the high-end housing market.

“I deal directly with these people who bring a lot of wealth, who are creating lots of jobs for local Canadians — builders, trades, architects, realtors like myself,” said Debelle.

“Most of the buying is coming from Chinese immigrants who are wealthy, so if we make it difficult for them to come into this country, we have killed 80 to 90 per cent of the buying in West Vancouver.”
Immigration lawyer Richard Kurland agrees.

“When you suddenly stave off the intake of literally hundreds of millionaires in the Vancouver property market, prices can only go one way and that’s down,” said Kurland.

Market impacted by more than investors

Others aren’t so sure. Even with the investor program frozen, housing prices continued to rise.
Tom Davidoff with UBC’s Sauder School of Business says the market is driven by other things like low interest rates and the local and global economies.

“Given that in the last couple of years, we haven’t seen the market cool off, it’s hard to believe that freezing the investor market is going to kill even the high-end in Vancouver,” said Davidoff.

The government has also announced the end of the Entrepreneur Program, a smaller scheme for business people who plan to own and manage a business in Canada.

However, wealthy investors can still come to Canada through the Start-up Visa Program, which encourages immigrant entrepreneurs to partner with private sector organizations to invest in local start-ups.

UPDATE 1-Canadian Housing Starts Slow Modestly In January

TORONTO, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Canadian housing starts fell more than expected in January, data released on Monday showed, reinforcing the view that the country's housing market is stabilizing after a recent boom.

Starts slowed to 180,248 units last month at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, a report from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp showed, shy of the 184,000 forecast by economists.

In December, starts were a downwardly revised 187,144. They were originally reported as 189,672.

The January figure continues a trend that has seen groundbreakings slow from 187,923 units in 2013 and the breakneck pace of 214,827 starts in 2012, when the housing market was at record highs and the government intervened to tighten mortgage lending rules.

Economists are largely predicting a softer but stable Canadian market this year as mortgage rates edge higher and the economy continues to chug along slowly.

"We anticipate that construction activity will continue to edge lower over the course of the year as the forecast increase in interest rates should restrain demand," David Tulk, chief Canada macro strategist at TD Securities, wrote in a research note.

"A smaller contribution from the housing market is consistent with the macro theme of domestic fatigue that will leave headline (economic) growth at or below its trend rate until net exports are able find their footing both in response to a weaker currency and a fundamentally stronger U.S. economy," Tulk added.

Multiple urban starts - typically condos - fell 6.0 percent to 102,289 units in January, while single detached starts rose 3.4 percent to 60,869 units, a modest rebound after two months of weakness.

Starts were down in British Columbia, Quebec and the Atlantic region, but rose strongly in Ontario and the Prairies.

RBC economist Josh Nye said unusually bad weather in December and January may have weighed on activity, and that housing starts could stage a small recovery in the next few months. Nye also noted that building permits outpaced starts in the fourth quarter of 2013 - 210,200 permits versus 194,500 starts - which could mean homebuilding will strengthen in the near term.

"However, we expect modestly higher interest rates as 2014 progresses will weigh on housing affordability and lead to some moderation in residential building activity going forward," Nye wrote in a research note.

CANADA FX DEBT-C$ firms to 1-week high, helped by producer prices

The Canadian dollar strengthened to its highest level in a week against the greenback on Monday, helped by a bigger than expected rise in Canadian producer prices and as investors consolidated positions after the currency’s recent declines.

The loonie was also given a boost by U.S. data that showed a sharp drop in manufacturing in January, hinting at a slowing economy. That sparked investor speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may have to refrain from a further reduction of its stimulus program.

The Canadian dollar has come under pressure in recent months, with selling intensifying in January, as investorsturned increasingly bearish toward it. The U.S. dollar appreciated nearly 5 percent against the loonie in January.

“This is probably a move that had run very quickly and is looking just a bit fatigued as we take a step back and assess the landscape and try to figure out why exactly we moved so far so fast,” said David Tulk, chief Canada macro strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.

The possibility of a fast Fed wind-down of its stimulative asset purchases has typically boosted the greenback against the Canadian dollar and other currencies. But Monday’s weak U.S. manufacturing data made that possibility look more remote and the U.S. dollar took a hit,falling 0.4 percent against a basket of currencies.

“To see the Canadian dollar catch a bit of a break in that environment does make a bit of sense,” Tulk said.

Data at home showed the recent weakness in the Canadian dollar helped producer prices rise by 0.7 percent in December, with higher energy prices also contributing to the gain.Economists had forecast an increase of 0.3 percent. Rawmaterials prices also rose.

The figures were the first release in a busy data calendar this week, which will culminate with the closely watched unemployment report on Friday. Hiring in Canada is expected to have picked up in January after the economy unexpectedly shed jobs the month before.

The Canadian dollar ended the North American session at C$1.1097 to the greenback, or 90.11 U.S. cents, stronger than Friday’s close of C$1.1138, or 89.78 U.S. cents.

Data on Friday showed investors had pared back their shortpositions on the Canadian dollar.

“A lot of people have booked a lot of profits on the Canadian dollar weakness story, something that was quite compelling as a narrative to start the year, but just appreciating how far we’ve come, maybe some of the momentum has scaled back a little bit,” Tulk said.

The Canadian dollar briefly fell through the psychologically important C$1.12 area on Friday before bouncing higher. That the currency was not able to sustain the move past C$1.12 helped the loonie gain some strength on Monday, said Scott Smith, seniormarket analyst at Cambridge Mercantile Group in Calgary.

“The trade has been a little crowded for a while, we needed a little washout and reset,” Smith said. “So it’s along the lines that we expect a little bit of a consolidation here until we see the catalyst for the next move higher” for the U.S. dollar-Canadian dollar pairing.

Canadian government bond prices were higher across the maturity curve, with the two-year up 3.7 Canadian cents to yield 0.931 percent and the benchmark 10-year up 35 Canadian cents to yield 2.297 percent.

Canada Pension Plan, Shapoorji Pallonji Tie Up For Real Estate Investments In India

Mumbai: Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) and real estate developer Shapoorji Pallonji Group on Thursday announced an alliance to acquire foreign direct investment (FDI)-compliant office buildings in large Indian cities.

CPPIB will own 80% of the venture with an initial equity commitment of $200 million, said a statement released by the partners.

The venture will target FDI-compliant office buildings that are leased out and offer good scope for returns from asset management. It will be supported locally by the Shapoorji Pallonji Investment Advisors team led by Rajesh Agarwal.

CPPIB was advised by Vikram Gandhi, founder of VSG Capital Advisors.

“We are delighted to be partnering with Shapoorji Pallonji to launch our first real estate venture in India focusing on stabilized office properties in major urban centres,” said Mark Wiseman, president and chief executive officer, CPPIB.

“India is a key growth market for CPPIB and, as a long-term investor, we believe there are attractive investment opportunities across various sectors. We look forward to working alongside Shapoorji Pallonji, a well-aligned and experienced operator and developer in India,” Wiseman said.

Investment bankers say pension funds can make up for a shortage of fund raising avenues to companies at a time when the initial public offering (IPO) market is largely comatose and equity and currency markets volatile in the face of subdued economic growth.

In a recent interview with Mint, Kaku Nakhate, the India head of Bank of America Merrill Lynch said, “The capital market should be developed in order to lure different pockets of finance. For instance, pension funds from world over should be able to come in.” Nakhate said pension funds can provide long-term finance as well.

On 21 October, Mint had reported that Canadian pension funds had expressed keen interest in investing in the proposed infrastructure trust funds modelled on the real estate investment trusts (REITs) in Singapore to open a new refinancing facility for India’s fund-starved infrastructure sector.

Calls For Greater Transparency In Canadian Real Estate Market

Despite the fact that Canada is attracting more than its fair share of real estate investors, both domestic and international, you may be astounded to learn that there is no public data available on investment ownership of Canadian real estate. Yes, the Canadian authorities are not aware of the split between domestic and overseas investors and are therefore unable to see what is really driving the market.

A number of prominent figures have now stepped forward to voice their concerns at an apparent lack of transparency. When you bear in mind that international investors are now having a major impact upon relatively large real estate markets, London is one which springs to mind, this is something which the Canadian authorities need to address sooner rather than later.

Identifying trends in the Canadian property market
Those who follow the Canadian property market will be well aware that prices have pushed higher over the last few years due to a lack of supply, a relatively strong economy, well-managed government budget and demand from overseas investors. While we are not able to specify the exact levels of overseas investment across the Canadian real estate market, it is significant and it is moving markets.
Quote from PropertyForum.com : “It will come as no surprise to those who follow the worldwide real estate market to learn that Canadian investors seemingly cannot get enough of US commercial real estate.”
Only recently we covered an article on Canadian real estate investors looking towards the US with funding in excess of $20 billion pouring out of Canadian real estate investor coffers into the US market over the last 12 months. The US market is transparent, domestic and overseas investor figures are available so why is Canada not operating on a similar basis?

Rightly or wrongly there have been suspicions for many years now that overseas investors in London have been looking for a place to “park their money” with so far unsubstantiated claims of potential money-laundering issues. This is in a market which is highly transparent and is able to monitor both domestic and overseas investment at a glance. If there are potential money-laundering issues under this transparent and strict regime then what about the Canadian situation?

Nobody is for one moment suggesting there are widespread money-laundering issues within the Canadian real estate market but the fact that there are no public figures available differentiating between domestic and overseas investors leaves room for doubt. When you also bear in mind that property markets, and indeed any investment market, are based upon confidence in the regime running the market, could we be storing up problems for the future?

Conclusion

It seems highly likely that the Canadian authorities will eventually look towards a system which will differentiate between domestic and overseas investors. It would be very useful if this information was made public so that particular trends and influences can be monitored on an ongoing basis. Whether we see such a move this year, next year or in 10 years’ time it seems almost inevitable that ongoing pressure will force the government’s hand.

As a side note, this is a system which has worked very well for the authorities in the UK who are now able to differentiate between overseas and domestic investors in the London property market and potentially look to introduce specific taxes. Now, would the Canadian government turn down a new tax income stream from overseas investors?

Canadian Home Prices In For A Soft Landing, Overvalued By 26 Per Cent: Fitch

TORONTO - Sky high prices in the Canadian real estate market won’t be climbing for much longer, says a report by global rating agency Fitch Ratings.

The agency forecasted Tuesday that home prices across the country are in for a “soft landing” and will either flatten out or slightly decrease over the next five years. It estimates that current prices are overvalued by up to 26 per cent in some regions and could fall by as much as 10 per cent in some places.

Fitch Ratings said the Canadian economy will be exposed when this happens, as many homebuyers have financially stretched themselves to borrow for their home purchase and will be in for a shock once interest rates start to climb.

It noted a downturn in the housing sector will also impact jobs, as companies have scrambled to build new homes and push construction to record levels in recent years.

"With a high level of employment and individual net worth tied to the value of the housing stock, a housing downturn could have serious consequences for the overall economy," it warned in the 12-page report.

Fitch Ratings said home prices have surged more than 130 per cent since 2001, outpacing income growth by more than 80 per cent.

Despite the anticipated decline, the agency said there are several factors that will lessen the impact on the Canadian economy, including the overall low levels of unemployment and proactive government policy.

In July 2012, federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty introduced tighter rules for mortgage lenders and borrowers — a change that industry says accounted for a slowdown in residential property sales that began the following month and continued through the first part of 2013. The efforts were aimed at avoiding a housing crisis like the one seen in the United States.

Although the policies have been successful at moderating mortgage debt, Fitch Ratings says housing prices still continue to rise.

"Government awareness has appeared to be high, and if the proactive policies specifically targeting a soft landing are successful, then flattening growth or modest decline scenarios become increasingly likely," it said.

Meanwhile, another report released Tuesday by the Conference Board of Canada also predicted that the housing market will be shielded from a hard landing.

"A crash would require a significant negative surprise like an interest rate spike or employment collapse. Since no such shock is in the cards in Canada, a housing crash like the one in the U.S. is nowhere near a possibility," said Robin Wiebe, a senior economist at the board’s centre for municipal studies.

Its Autumn Metropolitan Housing Outlook found that stability in the housing sector is can be attributed to supply continuing to be in line with demographics.

Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that home resales dipped in October for the first time since February, which some saw as a sign that the housing market is in for a correction.

Transactions fell 3.2 per cent in October from September on a seasonally adjusted basis. But the number was also an 8.2 per cent hike compared with October 2012, when home sales dropped following a tightening of federal mortgage rules.

The association’s national home price index also rose 3.52 per cent from October 2012 and the national average price for homes sold in October was $391,820, up 8.5 per cent from a year earlier.

Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary were responsible for much of the increase in the national home price last month. If they were taken out of the equation, the average price was up 4.9 per cent rather than 8.5 per cent.

CREA also said that the hottest markets in Canada so far in 2013 have been Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver when judged by total sales volumes, which measures both price increases and units sold. On the flip side, the coldest markets were in Quebec City, Saguenay, Que., and Halifax, all registering double-digit declines.

How Do Real Estate Agents Determine Your Home's Value

Thinking about selling your home? Understanding what your home is worth can help you decide how much to price your home and how much it is truly worth. Get real insights from experienced Seattle, WA real estate agents. 

Local Community

Efficient emergency services and thriving local businesses ordinarily translate into healthy property and home values.

Your Neighborhood

Take a look around your neighborhood. Is it safe? Is it visually appealing? Or does your neighborhood have a high crime and poverty rate? Real estate agents, as well as potential buyers, look into these qualitative and quantifiable properties while assessing your home's resale value.

Quality of the School District

High quality schools raise your home's value. Poor school districts and low graduation rates have the potential to negatively impact your home's value.

Community Amenities

Local amenities such as parks and libraries have the potential to enhance local property values. If community amenities are un-kept, dirty and dangerous, this can negatively impact your home's value.

Urban Planning & Property Zoning

Property values can be influenced both positively and negatively by zoning decisions and community development plans. How readily available are local shopping, entertainment and eateries? Is there public transportation available or easy access to a freeway? What is nearby the home for sale? These important issues are things real estate agents need to consider before pricing a home.

State of the Economy

Home sales and the state of the economy go hand in hand. When the economy is flourishing, asking prices for home sales go up. When the economy is depressed, it will be more difficult to sell your home, therefore influencing to a lower asking price.

Perception of Your Neighborhood

Whether your neighborhood's perceptions are negative or positive, realistic or unrealistic, they do influence property values. These perceptions have the potential to drive your home price into the ground or up into the stratosphere.

Natural Disasters

Natural disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires and earth quakes have the potential to lower property values temporarily after such an event. If natural disasters are a reoccurring problem, it can depress your home value permanently.